This may be my last post for the year. And in these last few days of the year, as is always, people tend towards excitement and anticipation. It is hard for anybody to come to a conclusion where the hype comes from. The festive end and festive beginning that visits the dates of a calender? Or maybe just the sheer magnitude of transition between time? Or dare I venture, the running away from the year and the looking forward to move into another? Maybe it is that we cannot get a finger on what exactly we are feverish about that contributes to our blind enthusiasm. The papers find enlightening comment among the figures of stocks and voluminous increase in shopping figures that accompany this yearly occurence. Statistics for the retail shopping especially from the US consumer and thus the world's biggest market show the cheeriness of the mood. Mood tells a lot.
I found myself shifting from magazines to newspapers, glancing at the eleven hour opinions and reflections: utterance after utterance. What could be left for next year? I had finished up the year with a little bit of wandering myself by plane and road and rail. Mood tells a lot. And when I visited India, I began to understand mood.
This year has been characterised by the mood of the economy and the mood of the consumer and the moods of the markets. There are many ways to gauge the temper and disposition of anything so oscillating. Yet it is the immensity that deserves more careful oversight. The last time I went to India was about 3 years ago. At that time, Slumdog Millionaire was probably in the womb as India took to the stage with the rest of those emergent markets. They were feeling their way into the world economy and finding their footing. They were starting to find their voice and stamp their mark and in the process carve out a share of prosperity for themselves. When we think of China, India, Brazil and a whole list of other contenders we think of what a profound change they have made and anticipate the bigger changes coming around the corner. But if you just flew into Bombay, it is the masses that make you understand the need for change.
I read an article that reflected on the sprawls of industrial campuses materializing in Mumbai (Bombay), Chennai and Bangalore. These are compounds where industries of commerce and technology have been outsource too. Tall, silver-lined, glass compounds that have infrastructure not belonging to the rest of the filthy, brown, shoddy Mumbai. Except for the architecture left by the British and the Taj Mahal everything else so bright is probably recent and cutting edge. India accommodates the rich and the poor in the same breath. They live side by side. That is where compounds come in. Compounds that make India look refurbished and not poor and impoverish. Compounds where probably only 10 percent of India find jobs through those gates. But India, you say, is coming into the age of success and success will take time. It has everywhere else.
That is true. In fact success usually comes after profuse stages of change. And change usually means going back and forth and back and forth. And change is a continuing process. So success has its varied stages too. In the article, the compounds were a measurement of the progress towards success that India has made. Indian companies such as Tata and Infosys need to revamp their image to enhance that same image for the spectacle of both its consumers (including would be consumers) and its employees. It has to barricade itself for its humble beginnings. India is unique from its neighbouring emergent market because it is the private sector that has spurred the furry towards success. More and more Indians, bearing witness to the droplets of rain upon the drought now come in search of prosperity not only spurring themselves in droves to cities such as Mumbai but by championing education amongst their progeny. Education is the new god of India. Like the cow it can be milk. And because it is the private sector that has been the spark of this upward mobility, Indians have come to belief in the power of hard work. To admire the swarming at the local trains plowing Bombay is to see the competitive edge in the beehive of the Indian market, especially in its cities.
India has risen just like many of the emergent markets because of need. For every Indian moving up there are many more waiting at the bottom of the ladder towards success. For every Indian crossing into the gates of heaven through those exclusive compounds, many are still in hell. The mood of these markets is need. It is something that is lacking in the spirit of most developed markets. We don't have the animal spirits reaction. At least, we have lost if for a while.
In a way no matter how much these companies try to server their ties to their motherland and humble beginnings, it is intricately related. The cutting edge is not in its modernity because prior to its success it relied of a hunger that grew from its desperate poverty. The advantage to its efficiency is that it has not have had to over do the glamour. Indian companies have to be careful not to kill the edge by killing what sells in a still depress world economy. Prices have soared because the need is getting bigger more people are starting to eat into a pie. The pie is fast becoming a concentrated swamp. Indians have to rely on their humble beginnings to draw them towards success and not get carried away by the faint scent of success. Compounds are subjective issues. I see them all over these cities. But if companies are focusing awry, the mood in India may change for the worse. And as we see, the mood tells a lot.
